Every once in a while an idea comes to me that I should probably write down.  Unfortunately in the daily bustle of life I forget to do that and then am left thinking down the road, "what was that thing I was thinking of?"  At one point I was going to carry a notebook and try to jot down the ideas but I ended up using the notebook for everyday prep lists and fire sheets. So I figure I'll jot some ideas down here and that way I have access to them from wherever I can find a connection.

• Kalbi glazed burger with kimchi and grilled pineapple
• Smoked trout tacos with jalapeno, lime aoli candied bacon and avocado
• Pulled pork empanada with peach confit, red chili yam gratin, Chinese long beans.
• Curried chicken wrap with cilantro scented rice, black bean puree and roasted red pepper remoulade

Just a few for now I'm sure I'll be adding some more later.

Inventory and Forecasting

I mentioned in my previous post that a monthly inventory is nice tool to keep track of costs and help an establishment know where they are in terms of profitability.  One question I keep running into is this: How much inventory do you need to keep on hand? Sure it’s nice to be able to tour the walk-ins and the pantry and rest easy knowing that you won’t be running out of product anytime soon, but as one of my mentors pointed out, you want to have your money in the bank and not on the shelves.

     It’s a struggle to find that perfect balance between too much on the shelves and not enough. It is easier to achieve that balance when you’re working in an establishment that has been around for a while.  At one restaurant I worked at the business forecast was arrived at by going back to the previous year and checking the amount of sales. It was reasoned that the previous years would give a fairly accurate count of the amount of business we could expect. 

At another place I worked the forecast could be obtained simply by checking the coming reservations for the weeks ahead and ordering accordingly. It was a fairly exclusive place and meals were for guests only and so there was really no need to factor in “walk-in” business. Sure the occasional surprise guest may show up but such instances were easily taken care of.

     What about the start up business though? If there are no prior statistics to go by and if the place is open to the public how do you forecast how much you’re going to need on hand? This is an issue that requires a lot of forethought and organization. Having never been through this challenge yet I find myself a little apprehensive in addressing it. Suffice it to say I am no authority on this subject and so what is written here are just some ideas that I’m mulling over on how to successfully negotiate this dilemma. 

     I’m thinking that the logical place to start is with the menu and portion size.  By accurately measuring how much raw product is required to achieve one finished plate you can begin to figure out how much raw product will need to be ordered.

A side note here: while you’re figuring this out it’s a good idea to jot down the pricing for all this. It will definitely help in tracking sales and your PNL down the road.

     The really tricky part is in forecasting what the amount of business will be.  What if you throw your doors open and nothing happens? Then you’re left with a ton of product and nothing to do with it. Hopefully the issue of publicity has already been taken care of and you as the chef just need to worry about making sure you have enough on hand to feed all those eager patrons.

     Setting up the initial revenue forecast should have been done as part of the overall business plan and with this initial forecast one can begin to put together a plan of attack for the uncertainties of opening a new kitchen. In planning for the opening several factors come into play. How many people can be served at one time, how many times do you intend to turn the restaurant in a day i.e. how many covers per day, and what percentage of each menu item will be ordered against the whole menu.

     As you consider these questions it is important to be objective about them.  Capacity seating is a solid statistic but anticipating the rate of turn is more difficult. Take into account your own experiences here. In all the places you’ve worked how many times do you turn tables and what kind of establishment was it?  There is a world of difference in the turn rate between a fine dining and a fast casual establishment.  So a little market research comes in to play here, after all you can’t expect a café here in my small mountain town to perform the same way as a similar establishment in larger towns like Santa Fe or Albuquerque although they may have almost identical menus.

     In planning this figure be optimistic but carefully so. It would be nice to pack the place in the first five minutes and have the restaurant function like a well oiled machine turning the tables every 40 minutes or so. After all isn’t the menu designed to run ten minute ticket times? Ah yes but remember that no matter how talented the staff is, this is a brand new venture and unforeseen items will undoubtedly show up.  What if you sell out of the crab fondue in the first 30 minutes and it takes 45 to prep?(No one wants to start 86’ing items when you have walk-ins full of product but sometimes you have to bite the bullet and do just that until you can find some time to recover.) Seasoned managers find ways of communicating this kind of news so there are no glitches but invariably one gets through causing a slow down.  Take the opening of Sonny’s Café in Chama as an example. The menu is typical New Mexico faire and is extremely quick to prep and deliver. So one would think that the opening would go without a hitch and the turn rate would be reasonably quick.  Well the owners are well known in the community and there was solid local media coverage in the form of a live radio remote and also the special appearance of a professional boxer to help boost the hype.  Doors opened and with in minutes every table was sat with more people waiting to get in. Orders were taken and the result was a kitchen that was inundated with approximately 75 covers at once. The result was a ticket time that escalated to almost 40 minutes thus affecting the overall turn rate.

     As far as estimating how much of each item to prepare for the opening, that is going to take some educated guess work. Unless you are blindly opening a restaurant in a region you have never been to with a menu you constructed in a vacuum, you should have at least some idea regarding regional tastes. Is the town mostly Hispanic and comprised of blue collar workers? Then I wouldn’t expect to sell too many Blue Crab Po’Boys. However it’s a safe bet that a basic taco plate will make a strong showing. 

     So use your knowledge of the area and local market research in your initial percentage guestimation but be prepared for the inevitable wild card. Sometimes something we never thought would be a huge seller ends up being one of the quirky local favorites. One example is the Green Chili Chicken Alfredo at the local steak house down the road. Given the make up of the town and the overall direction of the menu I would not have picked it as one of the big sellers but apparently it is, and I am constantly told by others that when I go eat there I have to get that particular item.  Apparently it’s the bomb.

     So using these basic questions I can begin generating a forecast that will ensure a profitable enterprise.  It is important to keep track of the daily numbers and compile them in a meaningful way so that future forecasting can be used to accurately predict business needs. Without an accurate forecast, I run the risk of product shortages and skyrocketing labor costs.

Giving Away the Store

Throughout the past few months as I assisted in the opening of a new restaurant I've been thinking a lot about the importance of keeping track of costs.  The place I've been working is a small restaurant and we don't have a fancy POS system that tracks everything.  Oh to be so lucky. I've spoken to the managers/owners about tracking costs and they assure me that it's under control.  That's good to hear since I've been doing a little reading and realize that this is an issue that cannot be ignored for any length of time.
I've always heard that it is important to control food cost and have participated in many monthly and yearly inventories. At the end we run the numbers against sales and calculate weather we are in good standing or not.  If the numbers are too high than we discuss ways we can rectify the situation. Often it involves a little menu tweaking and greater thought on how we can limit waste and control purchasing. Monthly inventories are helpful in keeping track of where you are throughout the year but it wasn't until I read about daily costing that the idea really began to gel on ways to really understand where the costs are going and how to keep a firm grip on profit and loss.
Point of sale systems are amazing at gaining this information since you just pull up a report that indicates what was sold on a given day and reconciling it with the actual financials. But what it doesn't tell you is if an item had to be tossed and re-cooked or if the portions were correct or, heaven forbid, a case of pork loin "accidentally" walked out the back door.
Cost control is something that needs to be bought into by the entire staff.  It's easy to explain portion size but what if the cook decides that they're going to give their buddies the "hook-up" on a certain dish.  Sure one time is easily dismissed in their mind but what if the entire staff decided to do it one time or even, as is often the case, every once in a while. After a while the friends begin to get used to the "hook-up" and it is no longer a treat but becomes an expectation.
At one of the restaurants I worked at, one of the cooks used to own his own place and we got into a discussion about this problem. He frankly admitted that while his restaurant was popular he got into the habit of giving items away for friends and that it was one of the factors that hindered his profitability. We were discussing this while we watched with exasperation one of the owners give away almost half of a dessert that had been prepared earlier that afternoon. The explanation was that if the customers tried it they would tell other people how good it was and that would bring in more business. On another occasion a couple of side items were prepared for a special since it was New Years and it was a traditional plate where the owner was from.  Again we shook our heads in shock as the side items were given away with every plate that was sold throughout the day. "That's how we do it where I'm from" was the reasoning behind this atrocity. It was with no real surprise when we were called in a few days later and it was revealed that the establishment would be closing.
Sure it's nice to be able to comp a dish for a few friends once in a while but these extra expenditures need to be tracked and taken into account. Waste needs to be tracked and factored in as well. After all if you have to toss half a case of veggies because they went bad you just increased the case cost 100% and that becomes really pricey in the long run. There are a host of other factors that can increase food cost and I will try to touch on those in the next few posts but for now lets just make sure we're not giving away the store. 

A quick update

I realize that it’s been quite some time since my last posting so first a little update. 

Yes I am still in the hospitality industry but there are some changes.  It would take quite a while to go through them all and it involves a lot of personal drama that I don’t think I need to go into.  Suffice it to say that I’m still in the kitchen and that is still awesome.

The food I’m currently doing is less complicated than what I have done before but it gives me the chance to focus on other aspects of the business.

My current establishment is fairly new and it has been interesting to help the owners get up and running.  It has been a while since I participated in a restaurant opening and it has forced me to revisit and rethink some of the issues you don’t normally consider in an already established venue. I’m not going to outline all of them here since I’m set to move later this summer and open a new place in more of a managerial position and so I will probably address them in future posts.

I look forward to new and exciting things in the future and am also looking forward to some interesting dialogue from you as well. So feel free to comment and let me know what you think.  Even if you aren’t speaking with food industry experience I will relish your insight since I’m going to be touching on many other business related issues such as promotion and publicity, employee relations, purchasing and inventory, product sourcing and of course the food.